The USD/JPY pair is fluctuating near familiar levels, having started the new trading week almost unchanged. The pair is near recent highs as investors await decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Both central banks are expected to make new moves on interest rates in 2025, with the Fed targeting a rate cut and the BoJ beginning to raise rates.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda recently reiterated the BOJ’s commitment to achieving a neutral rate. What makes the Bank of Japan unique among the other major central banks in the developed world is its longstanding efforts to stimulate inflation rather than curb it. Because the Bank of Japan’s discount rates are well below the global average, the Japanese yen has had a tough turnaround in 2024 as the rate differential has widened. Since the natural rate of interest is likely much higher than current BoJ discount rates, BoJ Governor Ueda and company will have to start adjusting rates upward at some point, or they risk sending the Japanese economy into another tailspin.

Wednesday will bring the latest Fed meeting minutes down on traders, but the key document this week will be Friday’s US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. As half of the Fed’s mandate includes full employment, markets will be watching this week’s US employment data with heightened interest.

Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 156.00, trading mainly with Sell orders

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